Grand National Breakdown

In just over two weeks, Saturday 6th April 5:15, approximately 600 million people will be sat down in front of there televisions and 150,000 people will be at Aintree live to watch the Randox Heath Grand National. This article is here to help the everyday gambler make sense of what can be seen as a minefield of a race with 40 runners going to post jumping 30 of the toughest fences in the racing calendar before being crowned a Grand National winner. My name is Thomas Moran, I have been a professional gambler for over 14 years, I specialize in horse racing and below I will be giving preview of all the need to knows, culminating in my best pick for the race.

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Grand National Free Bets

The National is the ideal place to use all the free bets you may have acquired as a new customer of a series of online bookmakers. With the nature of this race and difficulty rating attached, your winnings could be substantial. With the free bets that you might have received the stake of the free bets is not returned with any winnings so it is in your best interest to be backing horses at the bigger odds. The average price of a Grand National winner during the past ten years has been over 30/1 which is perfect for these free bets. As the race approaches and the runners are known there will be no end of free bets and special betting offers from online Sportsbooks. My advice would be to check back here regularly over the coming weeks for all the news, updates and promotions.

Perhaps the best value can be found through the free bets for the Grand National carnival in their £10 getup and £30 promotion. The preceding bets are only available to new punters but that doesn’t mean their existing customers miss out because they still have access to the best odds, as well as faller insurance.

The Grand National is a heart-pounding event, with 40 runners thundering towards the finishing line, and the excitement reaching a feverish pitch as the horses approach the first of 30 challenging fences.

The Grand National is a true test of spirit, strength, and endurance between the best of the best. To witness a Grand National is to see history in the making, as horses power their way over the grueling course, flying over each fence on their desperate and sometimes dangerous journey towards fame and glory.

Grand National Gambling Tips

For the punter who likes to pick winners for themselves then this section will help you to narrow down the enormous field through a variety of stats and trends based evidence. The history of the race provides us with many clues on how to pick the winners at any given price and below are the key points.

Age

As most people would probably guess the more practice you put into something and the older you become the more wise you become. This is the same with horses as it would be with humans. Its hard to stress how important jumping is in the toughest race of the betting calendar. When horses are young they are still learning there trade especially when it comes to jumping and with more miles on the clock and more jumping under there belts the more proficient that horse will be a jumping the tougher obstacles. Younger horses tend to make more mistakes than there older counterparts and one small mistake in the Grand National can be vital. Over previous years I can’t remember a time when a horse that won the National made many if any mistakes. So picking a horse who is over 8 years old is statistically a very good move. It has been nearly 80 years since a horse under the age of 8 has won the National, so already you can rule out a number of horses on this basis. The last 10 winners have come from the age group from ages 8-11. Its been 96 years since a horse over 11 years old won the race so already we have our first trend of picking a winner.

Weight

Another significant factor that we have to consider when picking a winner of the National is the weight that the horse has to carry round Aintree. The weights have been allocated by the official handicappers and some trainers will be delighted with there horses chosen weight and others not so.
As explained earlier the difficulty rating of this race is at the highest possible so everything has to be in place for the horse to win. It is no good a horse being a great jumper if it has 12 stone in weight to carry around as it would be nearly impossible for the horse to win. In the last 60 years only 7 have Nationals have been won by horses that were allocated a weight of more than 11 stone 5lbs. Two of those 7 incredible performances were from one the most elite performers ever Red Rum. So counting him out of the statistics then only 5 of the previous 60 years have managed to win such a large weight. Our current favorite of the race at the time of writing Tiger Roll is carrying 11 stone 1lb so it still fits into the trend but it is still a large weight to carry and could be the telling factor come the end of the race.

High quality horses

Many of the recent winners have shown there undeniable class having previously won grade and listed races prior to winning. Obviously that is a huge plus going into the National but punters previously didn’t realize how important this factor was. Even if the winners of the National hadn’t previously won a graded or listed race they had taken part and proved they deserved to be in elite company like my selection at the end of the article. Dr Richard Newland’s Pineau De Re had finished a length back in a listed race at the Cheltenham Festival so it was no surprise that 23 days later and 3 lbs higher he won the national at 33-1 by 5 lengths.

Trainers and Jockeys

Probably the trend that I give the least amount of time to just because my belief is that nowadays the jockeys are of such a standard that given the right horse a very high percentage of them would be able to steer there horse to victory. That said its still something that having one of the elite jockeys is still a massive plus but it wouldn’t be a defining factor in my decision in picking a winner. I find it is most important to focus on the proven ability and talent of a horse combined with a low weight and being around the 8 year old age bracket. In previous years it has been known that the smaller and lesser known jockeys have given incredible performances to get there horse over the winning line. A recent example of this was when David Mullins rode Rule The World to victory on his first ever ride around Aintree. Times are changing in this trend so we have to keep up with this by saying that it is one of the least important factors in picking the winner.

In terms of the trainers it is well know that some trainers have a very impressive history of winners and places with there horses in the race with Nigel Twiston Davies having two winners and Ginger McCain having trained 4 winners but Dr Newland with his very small string of horses managed to win in 2014 with the very impressive Pineau De Re.

2019 Grand National Contenders

The Grand National is widely recognized as the world’s most famous steeplechase with over 600 million viewers watching from all over the world. The weights have just been issued for all the horses and as I mentioned earlier in this piece this is vital in picking the winner. Even before initial entries closed, bookmakers predicted about £270 million will be spent on sports betting on this year’s Grand National.

Tiger Roll

The feat that only Red Rum in recent times has completed (winning back to back Nationals) is in front of Tiger Roll and it is a monstrous task to say the least. Tiger Roll trained by Gordon Elliot will know that the 2lb hike from last years win and with a few stats strongly against him that it will take every bit luck and jumping prowess to get him back over that winning line once again. He is currently 4-1 in the betting having been backed from 20-1 antepost over the last few months. His age at just 9 years old is not a factor to worry about and clearly he is having his backers with the big price drop but for me it would be very hard for me to put my hard earned cash on which now isn’t even an each way price. In my opinion the two lb rise from last year will be the telling factor in him not being able to replicate the feat from last year. Many horses have tried and failed to repeat the success. For Pineau De Re in 2015 it was given an 8 lbs higher rating and that proved way too much and it got beat 58 lengths in a race he couldn’t really compete in. The big positive for Tiger Roll is the incredible recent performance at the Cheltenham festival where he routed a good field over the Cross Country Chase in soft ground in which he never raised a bead of sweat. On that form he has a good chance but at 4-1 for anyone getting involved in such a short price with so many variables with horses falling and unseating its not a price I am remotely interested in. Most of the other horses would only have to finish in the place money for you to win more money to level stakes than if Tiger Roll managed a second consecutive win.

Anibale Fly

At 12-1 in the betting currently Anibale Fly the 9 year old from the JP McManus yard is the current joint second favourite. The age stats fit well for this horse being only 9 years old but the weight of 11 stone 6 lbs suggests that he could struggle according to the trends. Clearly a top level performer Anibale Fly has an amazing 3rd place finish in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (one of the best races if not the best race for stayers in the calendar) and even took part in the Grand National last year with a very impressive 4th place when once again he was joint second favourite. Last year he was rated 159 by the hanicapper and he carried 11 stone 8, this year he is rated 164 from recent performances and carries 2 lb less than last year and has a swing of 4lbs in his advantage with current favourite Tiger Roll. All things considered he will be a very strong contender this year.

Rathvinden

Currently being offered at a best price of 12-1 Willie Mullins Rathvinden is already a popular selection for many. A previous winner over 4 miles at Cheltenham last year it is an obvious choice for Willie Mullins to have a crack at the National especially with him being at the top of the age stats at 11 years old. The Mullins yard have won this race before in 2012 and with a low weight of 10-10 and Rathvinden could prove to be a threat to anyone in the field all things considered.

Rock The Kasbah

For me this was a horse that just fitted everything I look for in a Grand National winner. It will only be his first ever go at the Aintree fences but that doesn’t faze me as he has such a great jumping record everywhere he goes and has never fallen at any fences in his career. Over the previous few weeks there have been notable articles showing how happy the trainer Philips Hobbs is with the condition of the horse and more importantly how excited he is about the weight of Rock The Kasbah. In November last year Rock the Kasbah won the grade 3 betvictor.com handicap chase in a race with some impressive runners such as Coneygree (a multiple grade 1 winner). Its next run again at Cheltenham was another grade 3 contest where he came 6th over 26 furlongs running on very strongly near the end showing its impressive stamina. It may not have looked like a very impressive run but for me it was a great prep race as the handicapper hasn’t put the horse up in weight and it was just used to keep the horse fit and sharp. Unfortunately for Rock The Kasbah last year he was trying to run in the national and was put in the ballot to run but his handicap mark wasn’t quite high enough to make the cut. This year round there are no problems in that department and at a very nice price of 25-1 I think Phillips Hobbs and his followers will get a great run for your money.

For me the horse has the jumping ability, big odds a very nice weight to carry and with everything considered should run a lovely race for us and hopefully we will be celebrating at 5:30 with some more money in our bank accounts.

Grand National Fun Facts

– The Grand National is the biggest horse racing event of the year and never fails to be the number one betting event. Six hundred million horse racing and betting enthusiasts tune in around the globe to witness this famous race first-hand.

– In 2017, William Hill, the world’s largest bookmaker, raked in more than 5.2 million bets.

– In 2014 the betting lines ran red hot with more than 10,000 bets per minute being placed through both online and mobile channels.

– People from all over the world place bets on the Grand National, with bets recorded from Vietnam to Lithuania, along with more than 140 other countries.

– The Grand National often delivers a pleasant surprise to bettors who aren’t afraid to take a chance on the long odds. Some of the recent big priced winners have come in at 33/1, 66/1, and 25/1. This year promises to be more of the same.

Fun Stats

A William Hill survey with 2066 participants revealed some impressive figures and a few unusual traits for British punters:

– Statistics revealed that at least 57% of the adult population had placed a bet on the Grand National at some point in their lives.

– Around 51% of bettors base their bet on personal preference, rather than a horse’s past performance – mostly because they like the name. Party Politics in 1992 was a surprise win, with many bettors choosing the horse just because of a looming election.

– Only 17% of bettors will choose a horse based on its odds. Naturally, these bettors missed their chance on the 100/1 winner, Mon Mome, in 2010.

– Around 9% of bettors will choose a bet based on a completely random selection.

– Surprisingly, 2% of bettors have reported that they choose a horse based on the color of the silks.

Above statistics are from a survey of 2000+ people conducted by Populas Research Strategy for William Hill.

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